Prediction Market Hedging Calculator
Secure your gains on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt by calculating the perfect hedge strategy.
1. Your Current Position
Price you bought at (e.g., 30 cents on Polymarket)
2. Hedge Opportunity
Price to buy the OPPOSITE outcome (No)
Choose how you want to secure your position
Recommended Hedge
Warning: The combined price (Entry + Hedge) is greater than 100¢ (¢). Hedging now will result in a guaranteed loss. Only hedge if you want to limit losses.
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How Hedging Works
Hedging in prediction markets involves taking an opposite position to secure a guaranteed profit or limit a loss. It's similar to "cashing out" but often yields better returns by managing the position yourself rather than paying the platform's spread.
🛡️ Risk-Free Profit (Arbitrage)
If you bought "Yes" at 30¢ and now "No" is available at 40¢ (cheap enough), the total cost (30¢ + 40¢ = 70¢) is less than the $1 payout. You can bet on both sides and guarantee a 30¢ profit per share required.
🎲 Free Roll (Recover Stake)
Instead of equal profit, you can hedge just enough to recover your initial investment if you lose. This leaves you with a "free bet" on your original position with zero risk to your principal.
Hedging on Major Platforms
Polymarket Strategy
On Polymarket, hedging is often done by selling part of your "Yes" shares or buying "No" shares directly. Be mindful of the Conditional Tokens structure—buying "No" is mathematically equivalent to selling "Yes" in most binary markets.
Kalshi Strategy
Kalshi markets are strictly binary. You can hedge by buying the opposing contract (e.g., buying "No" if you hold "Yes"). Since Kalshi uses US dollars, calculations are straightforward with $1 payouts.
PredictIt Strategy
PredictIt charges high fees (10% on profit). When hedging here, you MUST account for this fee in the calculated hedge amount, otherwise your "risk-free" profit might turn into a loss due to commissions.
Arbitrage vs Hedging
Use hedging to exit a specific position safely. Use our Arbitrage Calculator if you are trying to exploit price differences between two different platforms (e.g. buying Yes on Polymarket and No on Kalshi).
Hedging Strategies
Equal Profit
This strategy calculates the exact amount to bet on the opposite side so that your net profit is identical regardless of who wins. This turns your position into a risk-free bond yielding a fixed return.
Recover Stake (Free Roll)
This strategy calculates the hedge amount needed to exactly cover your initial investment if your main bet loses. If your main bet wins, you keep the maximum possible upside (minus the cost of the hedge).