Prediction Market Arbitrage Calculator

Find risk-free profit opportunities across Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt

Platform A

Platform

"Yes" Price (¢)

Buy "Yes" at this price

Fee (%)

Trading or withdrawal fee

Platform B

Platform

"Yes" Price (¢)

Sell "No" at 100 - this price

Fee (%)

Trading or withdrawal fee

Total Investment ($)

Total amount to invest across both platforms

Arbitrage Opportunity

Status:

Calculating...

Expected Profit: $0.00

Return on Investment: 0.00%

How to Execute:

Platform A $0.00

Platform B $0.00

💡 Tip: Enter prices from two platforms to check for arbitrage opportunities

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What is Prediction Market Arbitrage?

Arbitrage in prediction markets occurs when the same event has different prices across different platforms. By betting on both sides across platforms, you can guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome. This is a risk-free profit opportunity when properly executed.

How It Works

Example: If Polymarket has "Yes" at 55¢ and Kalshi has "Yes" at 48¢, you can:

Buy "Yes" on Kalshi at 48¢
Buy "No" on Polymarket at 45¢ (100 - 55)
Total cost: 93¢ for a guaranteed $1 payout = 7¢ profit per contract

Note: Always account for platform fees which can eliminate smaller arbitrage opportunities.

Best Platforms for Arbitrage

🔷

Polymarket

Largest crypto prediction market. No trading fees, 2% fee on profits. High liquidity on major events.

Fee: 2% on profits

📈

Kalshi

CFTC-regulated US market. Trade with real USD. Varying fees by market type. Limited to US traders.

Fee: 0-7% depending on market

🗳️

PredictIt

Political prediction market. $850 limit per market. High fees: 10% on profits, 5% withdrawal fee.

Fee: 10% profit + 5% withdrawal

🎮

Manifold

Play money prediction market. Great for practice. No real money, so no real arbitrage opportunities.

Fee: None (play money)

Important Considerations

⚡ Speed is Critical

Arbitrage opportunities disappear quickly as markets adjust. Use bots or fast execution to capitalize before prices converge.

💰 Account for ALL Fees

Trading fees, withdrawal fees, and profit fees can eat into your margins. Always calculate the total cost including all fees before executing.

📊 Check Liquidity

Make sure both platforms have enough liquidity at the displayed prices. Large orders can move the market and eliminate the arbitrage.

🌐 Settlement Timing

Different platforms may settle at different times or have different resolution criteria. Ensure both markets resolve identically.